Saturday, January 4, 2014

Sugar Bowl Grades

There are lots of things that you hear on TV or read in the newspapers that just aren't true. Here is just a sample of what I'm talking about:

Under Obamacare, if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor.

The attack on the consulate in Benghazi was inspired by a video on Youtube.

Cam Newton had no knowledge that his father was soliciting money in exchange for his commitment to play college football.

You no doubt have heard or read every one of these statements and many more just like them. Repetition alone enhances credibility, until harsh reality intrudes. 

And here is one more to add to the list:

The 2013 Alabama Crimson Tide is the nation's best college football team.

We have been hearing that for months, and in the Sugar Bowl pre-game show, Mark May and Lou Holtz were saying it with the same certitude that they would use to predict the sun rising in the east. But harsh reality, in the form of a well prepared, well coached, Sooner football team intruded over the course of four quarters of football.

This season's Tide is a very good football team. And its loss to Auburn was self-inflicted and avoidable.  But it clearly was not the best in the country; Oklahoma proved that beyond any reasonable debate.

The Sooners soundly beat the Tide at the line of scrimmage, effectively pressured AJ McCarron and forced four turnovers each of which resulted in touchdowns. Football can sometimes be a rather simple game and Oklahoma simply whipped Alabama. 

To be sure, many Alabama players gave it their all and played like champions. DeAndrew White. Amari Cooper. Derrick Henry. Eddie Jackson. And, yes....notwithstanding throwing two interceptions, AJ McCarron. But the fact of the matter is that Oklahoma proved itself to be the tougher, more physical, more resilient, and ultimately more dominant team. 

Moreover, Bob Stoops and the Oklahoma assistants, proved themselves to be the better prepared, more adaptive, and ultimately more successful staff.

It is a shame......indeed it is a crying shame....that AJ's career at Alabama, which set records that may never be equalled, ended with a sack, a lost fumble and a touchdown by the opposing team. True to his character as a leader, AJ told reporters in the post-game locker room that this loss was his responsibility and his alone. His teammates would have none of that, however, and published reports quote Kevin Norwood, CJ Mosley, and others in the senior class shouldering collective responsibility for a collective loss.

The 2013 Crimson Tide started the season carrying the burden of historic expectations. The fact that those expectations were not met by this very good football team says more about the intensely competitive nature of the modern college game than it does about the men who wore crimson this season. Fans should not diminish what these players accomplished in 2013 by questioning the players' hearts in the final game. But there is no escaping the fact that in the final analysis, this year's edition of the Crimson Tide was not the best team in college football.  

Here's how I grade the game:

Offense: F When a team gains 516 total yards and loses something is amiss. That something for Alabama in the Sugar Bowl was ball security. Four turnovers resulted in 28 Sooner points. The margin of defeat was 14 points. Nick Saban's offensive philosophy is that every possession should end in a kick; a PAT, a field goal, or a punt. The four possessions that ended in a turnover were the death-knell for the Tide offense.

AJ went the distance and set a new season passing record [3063] eclipsing the previous mark set in 2010 by Greg McElroy [2987]. He completed 19 of 30 pass attempts for 387 yards. He threw two interceptions, suffered seven sacks and was penalized once for intentional grounding. The Oklahoma pass rush was creative, ferocious and highly effective; especially around the left side of the Alabama line. 

Amari Cooper caught 9 passes for 121 yards. DeAndrew White gained 139 yards and scored a TD on 3 receptions, the longest being a flawlessly executed 67 yard strike down the middle of the field. Derrick Henry added 61 yards and a TD on his single reception; an electrifying catch and cutback run against the grain. Kevin Norwood caught 2 passes for 30 yards including a clutch third-down conversion on a sideline pass where his feet were firmly planted in bounds as his body leaned at a 45 degree angle to snag the throw. We will miss everything that Kevin Norwood has brought to the Tide program. He leaves a very large gap in the receiving corps to be filled next season by Cooper, White, OJ Howard, and talented recruits. 

Derrick Henry stunned the Sooners with 100 yards rushing on only 8 carries. It is astonishing that a player that big can run that fast. He is a special football player....and he is only a freshman. TJ Yeldon gained 72 yards on 17 carries and lost a fumble inside the OU 10 yard line. AJ gained 11 yards but surrendered 54 yards in sacks that count against the rushing statistics. Consequently, Alabama netted only 129 rushing yards; 11 yards shy of the "magic" number of 140 where Nick Saban teams never lose.

Alabama had seven drives that gained 40 or more yards [75, 85, 80, 67, 40, 60, 74] which produced four touchdowns, one field goal, a missed field goal and a fumble. The Tide also punted 4 times all in the second half. Twelve times, the Tide faced third down. It converted 6 times, and only once out of 5 possession downs in the second half.

Defense: D- The Sooners shredded the Tide defense for 429 yards, converted 5 of 7 third downs in the first half, and devoured more than 10:00 of game time in the 4th quarter. Nevertheless, the defense forced the Sooners to punt 6 times in the second half and allowed a single score after intermission, which provided the offense the opportunity to get back in the game.

Eddie Jackson was the leading tackler with 10 stops. Landon Collins had 9 and Trey DePriest was credited with 7. The Tide defense accounted for 5 tackles for lost yardage, two hurries and two pass breakups. Landon Collins made his second interception of the season for the Tide's lone take-away.

Special Teams:


Punting: D Although Cody Mandel averaged a respectable 43.5 yards on 4 kicks, and the coverage unit permitted only 4 yards in returns, the down-grade is earned by blocking penalties that negated what would have been a touchdown on a punt return in the third quarter.

Place Kicking: D Cade Foster made a 27 yard field goal in the first quarter, but missed from 32 yards at the end of the first half.

Kickoffs: C Foster averaged 60 gross yards per kick and the coverage unit did a good job limiting OU's return game, achieving an average net per kick of 39.5 yards. 

Coaching: F Alabama was penalized 6 times for 45 yards. The participation report lists only 46 players who saw action in the Sugar Bowl. This puzzles me on two points. First, I am reasonably sure that Kenyan Drake played on kick coverage, yet his name is not included in the participation report. Second, I have noticed a trend in games over the last three years that Alabama has lost-OK, there are only 4 of them, so it is hard to call that a "trend"-but in each of those games, there is a significant drop off in the number of players who see action. It is as if the coaching staff is reluctant to go deep in games that are close. In each of those games, the winning team played on average ten more players than the Tide.

The biggest question for the coaching staff, however, is why, with a month to get ready, the defense seemed unprepared for Oklahoma's up-tempo offense. Earlier in the year, Coach Saban was quoted saying that he thought the up-tempo offense changes the game, and not for the better, because it limits the ability of coaches to make defensive substitutions and adjustments. Evidently, other coaches read those comments, and schemed accordingly.

One of the things that distinguishes great coaches is the ability to adapt to changes in the game. Coach Bryant, for example, won more games in the decade of the 60's than he won in the 50's, and won still more games in the decade of the 70's. Nick Saban is the best coach in the college game today. The challenge of the up-tempo offense gives Saban the opportunity to prove he is one of the best of all time. 

Even in the rubble of the last two games, there are encouraging signs for the future. Alabama will certainly lose some significant contributors to the NFL: AJ, CJ, Norwood, Belue, Steen probably Ha Ha Clinton Dix and perhaps one or two more. But a wealth of experienced and talented players will return. Among them, skill players Cooper, Yeldon, Fowler, White, Henry, Black....the list goes on. More importantly, the offensive line ought to be more in tact entering the 2014 campaign than it was at the start of this season. The same goes for the defensive line and secondary. Moreover, 2014 promises the return of Vinnie Sunseri, a player whose presence on the field has been sorely missed since his injury suffered against LSU.  

Once again, Saban appears to be on the threshold of signing another number one recruiting class. Several of these new players are enrolled this semester and will contribute on the field in the fall. 

The 2013 season did not end the way Alabama fans wanted it to or that pundits predicted it would. It was a very good season in a very competitive sport. Was it good enough? No. Not when measured by the standards to which we have become accustomed. According to our favorite insider, Marc Torrence, the returning players are "motivated and angry." That is good news for Alabama's fans. And very bad news for 2014 opponents.
 
On New Years Eve, I made some predictions of events to occur in 2014. One of those was that Alabama would qualify for the inaugural four-team college football playoff and win its 16th national championship. Maybe this time next year, my prediction will be as reliable as the government's promises about health insurance, or assurances about Cam Newton's eligibility. But then again, maybe not. January 2015 could find Alabama, for the fourth time in six years,     
the undisputed best team in college football.

Either way, the Tide is my team.....my people....and THAT, dear readers, is the absolute truth.

Roll Tide Y'all

The Commissioner  


 
 

Monday, December 2, 2013

Iron Bowl: The Report From The Tire Store

TO COMMENT ON THIS POST, PLEASE CLICK ON THE ABOVE LINK.

Sadly, that is an excellent edition of The Grades, Commissioner.  In all probability we should stop there, move on, and hope our beloved Crimson Tide will be better prepared, better coached, and have a better night in the bowl game.  We. Just. Can't.

You just sort of knew that sometime, someday, somewhere there would be a game where Alabama did not show up for a game.  During the Saban tenure there have been games where a unit just did not seem to be in synch, for whatever reason.  For example, the offense just wasn't there in the 2009 LSU game, the defense was mostly AWOL against Texas A&M this year, the special teams, more consistent this year than ever before, has a laundry list of games that make you shake your head.  But always previously, if one unit was down, others rallied to the cause -- the offense struggled and gave the ball away time after time against Mississippi State just last month, but the defense just clamped down and the Tide got the victory.  When Johnny  Football was having every prayer he threw in the air answered in College Station the offense put up 40-something.  Sometimes all three units did themselves proud and the result was a beat down of legendary proportion (this past January is a good example, as is the bowl game against Michigan State). 

So some cosmic law of football had to make you wonder just what would happen if all three units showed up tight, uninspired, careless, disinterested, whatever.  Now we know.   But if it had to happen (and the Universe being what it is, we suppose it did), why did it have to happen against the trailer-dwelling, toilet-paper tossing troglodytes of Lee County Polytechnic?

As the Commissioner so cogently points out, despite poor performances in all three phases of the game and a team that just did not seem well-prepared or motivated for the game, Alabama was basically in control of the game at least three times late in the fourth quarter, once when only a couple of hundred seconds stood between Alabama and victory, the ball in its possession, with the lead, deep in Auburn territory, poised for victory. Despite all the goof ups, miscues, bad decisions and general dreck, the answer is that Alabama still was in a good position to win the game.  However, a team that had made "Finish" its watchword couldn't close the deal.

We have said all season that the only team on the schedule that could beat Alabama was Alabama.  The Crimson Tide proved it last night.   Let the University of West Georgia say what they may, Alabama contributed to its undoing in an endless stream.

We see nothing to add to the excellent unit analysis you have provided.  Frankly, our leftover turkey sandwiches tend not to sit so well when we revisit it.   AJ made poor decisions with the ball and a few uncharacteristically bad throws.  Sure handed receivers played the ball like second string defensive backs.  Our defensive backs left assignments and yelled at each other about it.  The defensive line got blown off the ball.  Linebackers made weak efforts at tackles.  Our punter....  We've never seen anything like that in all our years.

The game had a season's worth of head-scratching coaching decisions -- continuing to try to pound the middle late in the game when the defense had abandoned defending the edge, field goal choices, the absence of productive Kenyan Drake (except on special teams), play-calling to end the first half as well as the second,, not returning to tight end play that seemed to be effective, etc.

You correctly point out that Alabama is in no position to blame the officials for last night's outcome.  Regular readers are aware, however, that the sorry state of SEC officiating is a recurring theme down here between the hydraulic lifts.  Matt Austin's crew is generally regarded as one of the best, if not the best "crews" in the SEC.  Admittedly, that's like setting the high jump bar at about sea level, but supposedly they are the A Team.  Schools from LSU to Georgia to Florida consistently raise questions about what officials see and don't see at the War Eagle 40 yard line on Pat Dye Field, at Jordan Hare Stadium in Lowder Pasture near YellaWood Forest.  The call on what was to us an imperceptible false start on the only decent place kick of the night was a game-changer.  So was calling holding on OJ Howard (who most certainly had his man by the shoulder pads, though needlessly and without influencing whether the run went for a first down or not).  As far as we recall that was the only time holding was called on the O line all night, and both sides had apparently realized that rule had been suspended and were holding with abandon play after play.  Much as we saw in College Station, the officials became mesmerized watching the game instead of doing their job, otherwise there is no way to explain the fact that at least three offensive linemen were ineligibly downfield on the tying touchdown throw.   We don't actually think it matters.  The Defense had gone rat trap on the drive and the penalty probably wouldn't have mattered, but this SEC has to get a handle on this.

Alabama will still be highly ranked.  It still has its pride for which to play.  No reason Alabama cannot end up ranked in the top three at the end of this season.  The question is whether Alabama will bother to show up and play hard in a bowl game.   We already mentioned the bowl appearance that resulted in a total dismantling of Michigan State after the 2010 season.  However, we also remember the no-show Sugar Bowl against Utah.  Alabama can still hand itself another loss.  Just like Saturday night,  whomever the opponent is, you can be confident that team will be motivated and ready to play.  Alabama must be as well -- nothing more is expected, nothing less is required.
The Correspondent From The Tire Store