LSU Grades

Making predictions is easy.  Making accurate predictions is hard.

I know from first-hand experience.  I try to make accurate predictions on SEC football games every week in The City Paper.   If you want to be accurate, you do your research, you analyze data, you draw upon you experience, and make the best call you can about how you think the opposing teams will play.  If you do your work, you can be right more than you are wrong.

Last Friday, a large group of LSU fans arrived in Tuscaloosa on Amtrack’s Southern Crescent; a passenger train that originates in New Orleans and bisects Alabama on its way to its northern terminus in New York’s Grand Central Station.  A reporter and film crew from The Tuscaloosa News was on hand as this traveling costume party detrained near the Waysider.  Actually, now that I think about it, that might actually have been a delegation from the LSU faculty rather than a group of fans.  This is just a guess, but the 250 lb guy wearing the purple frizzie-wig and size XXXL cheerleader’s skirt and top could have been a department head. . . . But I digress.  These LSU people were full of predictions about how Saturday’s game was going to play out.

Oh, sure, there was still a little bit of “Saban=Satan” talk by the Tiger faithful, but by and large they seem to have entered the “acceptance” stage of grief over the loss of the SEC’s best head coach.   But mostly these LSU people were predicting what would happen on Saturday.  Let’s examine some of those predictions against the reality of events:

Prediction # 1:

Normal Looking Guy With Heavy NOLA Accent:  “LSU is the better team.  Better coached.  Better players.  Better condition.”

Reality check:

LSU backup QB Jarrett Lee, playing in place of injured starter, calls LSU’s last timeout of the second half in the third quarter.

Prediction # 2:

Guy Wearing Purple No. 15 Jersey: “Cody will only play the first half because he is too fat the play the whole game against the Tigers.”

Reality check:

Terrence Cody stops LSU fullback on 3rd and 1 preventing LSU from gaining a first down in the 4th quarter.

Prediction # 3:

The  Person Wearing The Purple and Gold “Scream” Mask And Dancing The Macarena:  “Alabama will not score a touchdown against LSU because they have not been able to score any touchdowns in two games.”

Reality check [in two parts]:

Part 1:

Darius Hanks scores in the third quarter.

Part 2:

Julio Jones scores in the 4th quarter.

From what I’ve been able to determine, these LSU people were perfect in their predictions … like the way last year’s Detroit Lions were a perfect 0-16.  I hope they had someone to physically get them back on board Sunday’s south-bound Crescent, because with their ability accurately to predict events, I can only imagine them reading the train schedule and saying “It don’t matter what this piece of paper says, the train going back to Tiger Land will arrive when I’m good and ready.” 

Here’s how I grade the game:

Offense:    A      There was a time in the game when I had to do some serious introspection because I actually found myself agreeing with Gary Danielson who was saying that Alabama needed to quit trying to throw the ball and put it in Mark Ingram’s hands instead.  There is a reason why neither of us are being paid to coach football.  In his post-game presser, Coach Saban confirmed that it was a deliberate plan to favor the pass early and to go to the run only after we had LSU spread out and [these are my words] a little tired.

Alabama gained 452 yards of total offense [176 rushing], 24 first downs [10 rushing] and controlled the ball for 32:52 [10:56 in the 4th quarter].  GMac completed 19 of 34 pass attempts with 2 TDs and 1 interception.  He could have been intercepted a second time when he made the decision to force a pass to Julio Jones rather than throwing it away.  The official judged the LSU DB as having his foot partially out of bounds when he snagged the ball and a video replay did not demonstrate that the call was incorrect.  Had the call on the field gone the other way, the replay would not have overturned it.  Six different players caught passes.  Marquise Maze caught 6 for 88 yards, Mark Ingram caught 5 for 30, and Julio caught 4 for 104 and a TD.  Darius Hanks and Brad Smelley each caught 1.  Julio’s TD was more run than pass; and Jones was running like Nick Saban was chasing him still upset over Julio being the 12th man in the huddle to kill a TD chance on the previous drive.

Ingram had another excellent day running the ball, gaining 144 yards on 22 carries [6.5 average].  Trent Richardson added 27 yards on 6 rushes and GMac contributed 23 yards on 6 runs.  The net rushing total was reduced by 16 negative yards, but 7 of those  came on Bama’s final possession of the game when we were taking consecutive knees.

The offense converted 4 of 14 third downs and 1 of 1 on 4th down.  Bama had 6 drives of more than 40 yards including an 8 play 81 yard drive that consumed the first 3:20  seconds of the second half and resulted in the McElroy to Hanks TD pass.  In the second half, Bama  had 6 possessions.  Four of those possessions resulted in Alabama points.  One ended in a safety, and the final possession came at the end of the game with LSU unable to stop the clock.

We outscored LSU 14-0 in the fourth quarter and out gained the Tigers by more than 100 yards over the last 15 minutes of game time.

I  have to give LSU credit for setting up a situation where they could get a safety.  Because we missed a sure TD to a wide-open Julio Jones in the second quarter, missed out on the opportunity to get points at the end of the first half with an interception, and had to settle for a field goal in the fourth quarter when a substitution penalty took us from 3rd and goal from the 1 to 3rd and goal from the 6, I can’t add the + to the offense’s otherwise stellar effort.

Defense:    A+     We held LSU to only 253 total yards [95 rushing], 13 first downs and 13 offensive points.  Of LSU’s 11 offensive possessions, 8 ended in punts and 1 ended in an interception.  Six of LSU’s 8 punts, came on possessions of only 3 plays from scrimmage, and one came after 4 plays.

LSU did not have a first down in the fourth quarter until garbage time, and even then the Tigers only managed to move the chains once.

Rolando McClain was the leading tackler with 9 tackles [1 solo].  He was followed by Javier Arenas and Mark Barron who each were credited with 7 and Cory Reamer who had  5.  Reamer had a  rough day on Saturday as he missed several tackle opportunities and LSU’s first TD was caught by the receiver he was trying to cover.  LSU’s quarterbacks were hurried 8 times and sacked 3 times for 27 yards in losses.  In addition to the sacks, Bama stop-troops were credited with 4 tackles for loss of yards.

Special Teams:

Punting:        A        P.J. only punted 4 times, all in the first half.  His lone punting attempt in the second half was nullified with a 5 yard LSU penalty, and the coaching staff elected to run a play on 4th and 1.  He averaged 38 yards per punt and nailed LSU inside the 20 on 3 of his punts.   Javier returned 4 LSU punts for 11 yards.

I do not typically comment on the quality of the opposition’s punting, but it would be an injustice not to give some props to LSU’s outstanding punters, Josh Jasper and Derek Helton, who combined for an average of 46.6 yards per punt [longest 53] and nailed Bama deep 3 times.  It was the best job of punting Alabama has faced this season.

Place Kicking:    A     Leigh Tiffin was perfect from 28, 20 and 40 yards.

Kickoffs:            A+    I have been waiting all year for the opportunity to give the kick-off team a stellar grade and do they ever deserve it!  Tiffin averaged 68 yards per kick on 6 kicks, and put the ball into the endzone twice for touchbacks.  Return coverage was outstanding.  LSU’s hot-shot return man, Trendon Holiday, returned 4 kicks for only 85 yards and his longest return of the night was only 29 yards.

Coaching:           A     Alabama had 541 all-purpose yards, and was only penalized 4 times for 20 yards.  This was a team-win.  Every phase of the game contributed to this victory.  Alabama was the better conditioned team and this showed up glaringly in the 4th quarter.  The game was very physical, and the Alabama players had the upper hand on their opponents.     Some of you may be saying: “How can you not award the + to the coaches for winning the SEC West Championship.”  That’s a fair criticism and if we didn’t have loftier goals in mind, I might have added the + to the job done by the coaches.  The decision to run a passing play in 2nd and 7 from mid-field late in the fourth quarter, when all we had to do was drain the clock nearly blew up in our face; but, the decision to set aside Fitz’s excellent 4th quarter punt and go for it on 4th and 1 was gutsy beyond belief.  When asked about it after the game, Coach Saban said he had faith in the defense, but he had just as much faith in our ability to win on the line of scrimmage and get the first down.  “It was a great call because it worked,” Nick said.  “If it hadn’t worked, it wouldn’t have been a very good call.”

After the game, a reporter asked Coach Saban to say something about the fact that the Tide will face Florida for the SEC Championship.

He refused to do so.

The only game Nick would take about is the next one.  This is vitally important.  Mississippi State ought to have beaten LSU earlier in the season.  MSU has a chance to become bowl eligible if it wins out.   MSU has an excellent running game and the Bulldogs would like nothing better than to spoil Alabama’s championship aspirations.  Bama’s players must continue to work hard, stay focused and not look ahead.

Alabama is playing very good team football.  Defensively, Alabama is excellent.  Offensively, the Tide is working its way out of a mid-season slump.  The LSU victory ought to be a confidence booster and the Tide has the chance to improve each week and peak at the right time.

It is indeed easy to make predictions.  And it is tempting to get on the SEC Championship train and start throwing around all sorts of confident prognostications.  But I think the more prudent course is to follow the example set by Nick Saban.

I’m going to focus this week on Mississippi State.

The Commissioner