Bowl Game Preview

TO COMMENT ON THIS POST, PLEASE CLICK ON THE ABOVE LINK.

This Thursday my column in The Williamson Herald will contain my picks on all of the bowl games in which SEC teams are participating, other than the BCS CG. I'm saving that game for my column the following week.

But as I worked on the portion of my column focusing on the Capital One Bowl, it occurred to me that I should expand it a little bit and make it a new post for the blog.  I realize this is a departure from my typical format, which offers observations and grades on games after they have been played. Look for Bowl Game Grades about this time next week.

For now, here's how I see things shaping up for Alabama vs. Michigan State:

Although these two programs have never played each other, the Alabama coaching staff ought to know a great deal about Michigan State. Nick Saban was the Spartans head coach for five seasons. Offensive coordinator, Jim McElwain spent three seasons on the MSU staff, offensive line coach, Joe Pendry was an MSU assistant for two seasons and linebackers coach Sal Sunseri coached one season in East Lansing. Moreover, tight ends coach and special teams coordinator, Bobby Williams, spent five years as an assistant coach and two years as the Spartans head coach.

Adding to this reunion atmosphere, is the fact that MSU's head coach, Mark Dantonio, was an assistant on Nick Saban's staff when he was the Spartans' boss.

At 11-1, Michigan State is enjoying the best record in school history, and a share of the Big 10 championship for the first time since 1990. The 2010 Spartans have scored 30 or more points in a school-record nine games. They have also won 7 home games for the first time in school history. In spite of the fact that, due to a practice injury, the Spartans will be without their leading receiver, B. J. Cunningham, this will prove to be a tough match-up for Alabama.

The Tide has averaged 34.6 points and 435 yards of total offense per game, while allowing only 14 points and 296 total yards. Bama's quarterbacks threw only 5 interceptions in 2010 while the Tide defense picked off opposing quarterbacks 21 times. The Bama offense converted 43% of their third-downs while the defense held opposing offenses to a conversion percentage of only 34%. Heisman Trophy winner, Cam Newton, came into this year's Iron Bowl averaging 117 yards rushing per game, and was held to a mere 39 yards rushing by the Bama defense. So, what accounts for the Tide's 3 losses?

Lots of explanations have been offered: inconsistency, immaturity, inability to finish, lack of toughness. All of these comments accurately describe why Alabama is 9-3, but "lack of toughness" describes it best. Tough teams can run the ball inside and score in the red zone; Alabama struggled in this area. Tough teams do not squander 24 point leads against their most bitter rival; Alabama did. Tough teams pressure opposing quarterbacks and protect their own; Tide defenders sacked opposing quarterbacks 22 times. but the Bama offensive line allowed opposing defenses 32 sacks for a combined loss of 165 yards. This lack of toughness could be the Tide's undoing against the Spartans.

 It will require a great deal of toughness to put the Auburn loss aside and prepare adequately to compete against a good football team like Michigan State. Can Alabama bounce back? Can the players find in themselves the toughness to improve, to finish and to overcome adversity? Two seasons ago, Alabama followed a disappointing loss to Florida in the SEC Championship by being blown out by Utah in the Sugar Bowl. But while that loss may be fresh in the minds of Bama fans, it is ancient history to the vast majority of the players in 2010. Coach Saban teaches that every play has a life of its own, and once that play is over, the only thing that matters is the next play; so a bowl game played two years ago, at a time when most of the members of this team were still in high school, is simply irrelevant.

What is relevant, however, like it or not, is that the 2010 Crimson Tide has not substantially improved as the season has progressed. Coach Saban talks about a lack of consistency, but I think he's describing the same thing. There have been opportunities for substantial improvement; the come-from-behind win over Arkansas was perhaps the most notable. And the blow-out win over Florida left most observers thinking that the opportunity had been seized and that Alabama's march to a repeat BCS Championship was unstoppable. Sports writer, Mike Lupica, on ESPN the morning after the Florida game, even said that Alabama resided all alone somewhere between the NFL and the rest of college football. 

But that was before everyone realized just how poor a team Florida actually was this year. And it was before South Carolina out-played the Tide in every phase of the game. That loss was yet another opportunity for substantial improvement, and dominating performances against Ole Miss and Tennessee had some of us thinking the Tide had turned a major corner. Winning out, with a break here and there, could put Bama in the number 2 spot in the BCS with a chance to claim a consecutive national championship by beating Oregon. Then the LSU game happened; a second loss, but unlike the South Carolina game, this was one where the Tide was not out-played by a better prepared team. 

Following the loss in Baton Rouge, I was genuinely concerned about the team's ability to put the LSU loss aside and play well against over-achieving Mississippi State. But the team responded with a dominating performance. The Bulldogs were never in the game and Alabama could have named the final score.

The final tune up against Georgia State set the stage perfectly for a take-down of the Rent-A-Team from Lee County.

All Subscribers to The Grades know what happened next, so I won't go into further detail on the Iron Bowl. There is a point here, however, that deserves to be mentioned: After South Carolina and LSU, the Tide bounced back. The Team didn't crawl into a hole and roll over. It thrashed Ole Miss after the South Carolina game and pounded Mississippi State following LSU.

Michigan State is a tougher test than either of the two Mississippi teams, but the more important question is not how good the opponent is, but how intense Alabama will be. An aspect of toughness is responding well to adversity. In that respect, Alabama has twice this season shown that it can be tough. 

If the past is prologue, the Tide will play the Spartans with the intensity previously dished out to the Rebs and Bulldogs. Beating a good Michigan State team on New Years Day will be an excellent way to start the 2011 campaign. I am optimistic.

The Commissioner

           

The Commissioner's MVPs

TO COMMENT ON THIS POST, PLEASE CLICK ON THE ABOVE LINK.

Long-term readers will recall that at the end of every season, The Commissioner proposes special player recognition for Most Valuable Players on offense, defense and special teams, as well as Freshman Player of the Year.

This is a particularly enjoyable exercise for me. It's an opportunity to think back over the season and offer some words of encouragement to players who have been difference makers; "Game Changers" to borrow a phrase.

I think the consensus opinion of Subscribers and Correspondents to this blog is that the results of 2010 were less than the talent pool promised at the beginning of the season. Coach Saban was telling anyone who would listen, that this was going to be a challenging year, that as hard as it is to climb to the top, it is even harder to stay there. We heard Coach Saban say that if each player would play to a standard, then results would take care of themselves. Many fans and pundits wrote those comments off as so-much "coach speak" but if you reverse engineer the results of the season, you can see the standards of performance that were unmet. The players on my MVP list, however, not only met, but exceeded the those expected standards.

So here are The Commissioner's MVPs for 2010:

Offense:  There are several candidates for the Offensive MVP recognition.  Due to a pre-season injury that required surgery, Mark Ingram was only available for 10 games, yet he compiled 1087 yards of total offense [816 rushing, 252 receiving and 19 on kick returns]. Trent Richardson, also limited to only 10 games due to a mid-season injury led all players in total offense with 1528 yards [658 rushing, 254 receiving and 616 returning kicks]. Julio Jones, in my mind the best all-around football player on the team, accounted for 1356 yards of total offense [99 rushing, 1024 receiving, 129 returning kicks and 44 returning punts]. He is a fericious blocker, and in all 12 games in which he played, he never took a play off.

Between these top three all-purpose offensive contributors, I would name Number 8, Julio Jones as the MVP. But there award is for "Most Valuable Player." The key adjective is "valuable." Is there an offensive player that the 2010 Crimson Tide could not have done without?

The answer is "yes" and in my opinion that player is: Greg McElroy.  This young man epitomizes the finest qualities of character, skill, leadership and performance that Alabama fans expect in their players. He is a great ambassadore for not only the Univeristy of Alabama, but for the game of college football. His off-the-field accomplishments are well documented; while playing varsity football he earned his under graduate degree and started graduate school. His academic accomplishments have made him a Rhodes Scholarhsip finalist. GMac's play on the field, is just as stellar as his performance off of it. 

He completed 70.6% of his pass attempts [209-296] for 2767 yards and 19 TDs against only 5 interceptions for an efficiency rating of 166.9

The Commissioner's Offensive MVP for 2010 is Greg McElroy.

Defense:  The 2010 defense was very young and the challenge of replacing the many great contributors lost to graduation and the NFL was daunting. Perhaps the greatest hole to fill-literally and figuratively-was the space in the middle of the 3-4 vacated by the human heavy cruiser, Terrence Cody. Was the pass rush not as effective this year? Cody always occupied the attention of two offensive linemen. Since you only get to play 11 men on each side of the ball, having one defender account for two blockers creates opportunities for others to cause mischief in the offensive backfield. Cody's absence was also noticed on offense. Can you imagine Alabama not scoring a TD on Auburn with first and goal at the 3, and big Terrence leading the charge into the end zone? I would have paid extra to see Cody at full speed take on Nick Fairly.

The defense in 2010 was not as dominant as last year's group. Cecil Hurt wrote that the team as a whole was not as "tough" as the 2009 national champions. That does not mean, however, that the defense was without its Game Changers. I think there were three worthy of consideration.

Mark Barron  led the team in tackles with 75 [54 solo] including 3 for 19 yards of loss and he snagged 3 interceptions. He probably would have made it 4 picks in the third quarter of the Iron Bowl but for the fact that he was unable to raise his right arm in the second half due to an injury sustained before intermission.

Robert Lester also had an outstanding year with 47 tackles [25 solo] a team-high 7 interceptions, 3 break ups and 10 pass deflections. But my pick for defensive MVP is:

Courtney Upshaw.  Although limited all year with nagging injuries, Upshaw recorded 47 tackles [27 solo], 11.5 tackles for loss including 5 sacks, 2 breakups, 2 deflections 2 hurries and 2 forced fumbles. He seemed to have his best games in the biggest games. Who can forget him coming around the defensive right end to chase down the Florida quarterback for a loss at the far side line? Or his excellent play in the Auburn game that directly contributed to hold Cam Newton to only 39 yards rushing? Here's wishing Upshaw a speedy recovery from his injuries, and a stellar senior year in 2011.

Special Teams: At the inaugural "Nick at Noon" luncheon prior to the San Jose State game, Coach Saban told the assembled crowd that Alabama's best special teams player was Trent Richardson. It should surpirse no one that Coach Saban was proved right. A big question going into this season was how the Tide would replace Javier Arenas in the return game. Richardson was the answer. Trent is not Arenas. But he was incredibly reliable and productive returning kicks. In 10 games, Richardson accounted for 616 return yards. And this includes several games where the opposing team didn't have many opportunities to kick off. More importantly, Richardson never fumbled a kick return; 616 yards and no fumbles-that's a standard worthy of recognition.

Freshman of the Year:  My selection for the most valuable true freshman is: C. J. Mosley.  This 6-2, 225 lb freshman from Theodore made 66 tackles [30 solo], intercepted 2 passes, broke up 8, defelcted 10 and hurried opposing quarterbacks twice. He also scored 2 TDs on take-aways. That is an impressive performance by a new-comer and sets a standard for his teammates, and for himself as he takes his place in 2011 as a returning letterman.

A special shout-out is also due for rock-steady defensive back, Will Lowery. Number 29 is Alabama's nominee for the "Rudy Award," a recognition that takes into account character, work ethic, and leadership in addition to contributions on the field. Fan voting is a component of the award, and voting is going on now, so go to www.collegerudyawards.com and let your vote count.

Roll Tide

The Commissioner