This Thursday my column in The Williamson Herald will contain my picks on all of the bowl games in which SEC teams are participating, other than the BCS CG. I'm saving that game for my column the following week.
But as I worked on the portion of my column focusing on the Capital One Bowl, it occurred to me that I should expand it a little bit and make it a new post for the blog. I realize this is a departure from my typical format, which offers observations and grades on games after they have been played. Look for Bowl Game Grades about this time next week.
For now, here's how I see things shaping up for Alabama vs. Michigan State:
Although these two programs have never played each other, the Alabama coaching staff ought to know a great deal about Michigan State. Nick Saban was the Spartans head coach for five seasons. Offensive coordinator, Jim McElwain spent three seasons on the MSU staff, offensive line coach, Joe Pendry was an MSU assistant for two seasons and linebackers coach Sal Sunseri coached one season in East Lansing. Moreover, tight ends coach and special teams coordinator, Bobby Williams, spent five years as an assistant coach and two years as the Spartans head coach.
Adding to this reunion atmosphere, is the fact that MSU's head coach, Mark Dantonio, was an assistant on Nick Saban's staff when he was the Spartans' boss.
At 11-1, Michigan State is enjoying the best record in school history, and a share of the Big 10 championship for the first time since 1990. The 2010 Spartans have scored 30 or more points in a school-record nine games. They have also won 7 home games for the first time in school history. In spite of the fact that, due to a practice injury, the Spartans will be without their leading receiver, B. J. Cunningham, this will prove to be a tough match-up for Alabama.
The Tide has averaged 34.6 points and 435 yards of total offense per game, while allowing only 14 points and 296 total yards. Bama's quarterbacks threw only 5 interceptions in 2010 while the Tide defense picked off opposing quarterbacks 21 times. The Bama offense converted 43% of their third-downs while the defense held opposing offenses to a conversion percentage of only 34%. Heisman Trophy winner, Cam Newton, came into this year's Iron Bowl averaging 117 yards rushing per game, and was held to a mere 39 yards rushing by the Bama defense. So, what accounts for the Tide's 3 losses?
Lots of explanations have been offered: inconsistency, immaturity, inability to finish, lack of toughness. All of these comments accurately describe why Alabama is 9-3, but "lack of toughness" describes it best. Tough teams can run the ball inside and score in the red zone; Alabama struggled in this area. Tough teams do not squander 24 point leads against their most bitter rival; Alabama did. Tough teams pressure opposing quarterbacks and protect their own; Tide defenders sacked opposing quarterbacks 22 times. but the Bama offensive line allowed opposing defenses 32 sacks for a combined loss of 165 yards. This lack of toughness could be the Tide's undoing against the Spartans.
It will require a great deal of toughness to put the Auburn loss aside and prepare adequately to compete against a good football team like Michigan State. Can Alabama bounce back? Can the players find in themselves the toughness to improve, to finish and to overcome adversity? Two seasons ago, Alabama followed a disappointing loss to Florida in the SEC Championship by being blown out by Utah in the Sugar Bowl. But while that loss may be fresh in the minds of Bama fans, it is ancient history to the vast majority of the players in 2010. Coach Saban teaches that every play has a life of its own, and once that play is over, the only thing that matters is the next play; so a bowl game played two years ago, at a time when most of the members of this team were still in high school, is simply irrelevant.
What is relevant, however, like it or not, is that the 2010 Crimson Tide has not substantially improved as the season has progressed. Coach Saban talks about a lack of consistency, but I think he's describing the same thing. There have been opportunities for substantial improvement; the come-from-behind win over Arkansas was perhaps the most notable. And the blow-out win over Florida left most observers thinking that the opportunity had been seized and that Alabama's march to a repeat BCS Championship was unstoppable. Sports writer, Mike Lupica, on ESPN the morning after the Florida game, even said that Alabama resided all alone somewhere between the NFL and the rest of college football.
But that was before everyone realized just how poor a team Florida actually was this year. And it was before South Carolina out-played the Tide in every phase of the game. That loss was yet another opportunity for substantial improvement, and dominating performances against Ole Miss and Tennessee had some of us thinking the Tide had turned a major corner. Winning out, with a break here and there, could put Bama in the number 2 spot in the BCS with a chance to claim a consecutive national championship by beating Oregon. Then the LSU game happened; a second loss, but unlike the South Carolina game, this was one where the Tide was not out-played by a better prepared team.
Following the loss in Baton Rouge, I was genuinely concerned about the team's ability to put the LSU loss aside and play well against over-achieving Mississippi State. But the team responded with a dominating performance. The Bulldogs were never in the game and Alabama could have named the final score.
The final tune up against Georgia State set the stage perfectly for a take-down of the Rent-A-Team from Lee County.
All Subscribers to The Grades know what happened next, so I won't go into further detail on the Iron Bowl. There is a point here, however, that deserves to be mentioned: After South Carolina and LSU, the Tide bounced back. The Team didn't crawl into a hole and roll over. It thrashed Ole Miss after the South Carolina game and pounded Mississippi State following LSU.
Michigan State is a tougher test than either of the two Mississippi teams, but the more important question is not how good the opponent is, but how intense Alabama will be. An aspect of toughness is responding well to adversity. In that respect, Alabama has twice this season shown that it can be tough.
If the past is prologue, the Tide will play the Spartans with the intensity previously dished out to the Rebs and Bulldogs. Beating a good Michigan State team on New Years Day will be an excellent way to start the 2011 campaign. I am optimistic.
The Commissioner
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