Sunday, November 6, 2011

LSU Grades

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The only team in America that can beat Alabama this year is ..... Alabama.

Last night's game at Bryant-Denny Stadium provided all the proof anyone should need for the truth of that proposition. The Tide came up on the short end of a 9-6 overtime decision at the hands of an LSU team doing its very best Alabama imitation, and the game went to OT in the first place because of Alabama miscues, principally, but not exclusively, in the kicking game.

LSU played excellent defense, stopped the Alabama running game [96 yards] and ran the ball just well enough [148 yards] to have better field position for most of the contest. Alabama missed 3 field goals, including one in overtime, had another attempt blocked, lost critical field position on a penalty during an interception return, and turned the ball over on two interceptions, one of which was inside the LSU one yard line.

It was a bruising, physical game. At various points: Barrett Jones, Jesse Williams, Brad Smelley, Marquis Maze, and Dre Kirkpatrick were sidelined with injuries. Nevertheless, this was a game that was Alabama's to win. The Defense kept LSU out of the endzone, and, in regulation, surrendered only 6 points, shutting down the Tigers' excellent corps of receivers. The Offense out gained LSU [295 to 236], earned more first downs [17 to 15] and converted 5 of 13 third downs compared to the Tigers 3 of 11.

Coming into the game, Alabama had run the ball and stopped the run better than LSU. Last night, however, it was the Tigers who achieved those two milestones for winning big games.

Both teams made mistakes. LSU committed two turnovers and had a costly penalty, but Alabama made its share and a half. Ultimately, that was the difference.

Here's how I grade the game:

Offense: C- Readers of The Grades know that I conventionally impose a one letter grade deduction for the quality of opposition when Alabama plays the North Texas and Georgia Southerns of the world. Because LSU is clearly better than any other team still in the BCS discussion, I believe that a one letter grade addition is appropriate, at least for the offense.

After 20 carries, Trent Richardson had gained 98 yards, Alabama had the ball and was driving in the 4th quarter. On the next two plays, LSU stuffed the run and Trent lost a total of 12 yards. He finished the night with 89 yards rushing and 192 all purpose yards [89 rush, 80 receiving, 23 kick return].

Eddie Lacy gained 19 yards on 5 carries.

AJ completed 16 of 28 pass attempts for 199 yards. He threw 1 interception and was sacked twice. Marquise Maze was the leading receiver with 61 yards on 6 catches. Trent Richardson gained 80 yards on 5 receptions; a potential 6th reception went through his hands at the LSU 5 yard line during OT. Darius Hanks had 2 receptions each gaining 19 yards. Eddie Lacy, Michael Williams and Brad Smelley each had a catch.

In the fourth quarter, Maze threw to Williams out of the Wild Cat formation. It appears to me that Williams made the catch, and was down at the LSU goal line when the LSU defender pulled that ball away. The officials called it an interception and it went to the replay booth. If the call on the field had been a reception, and down prior to the ball coming out, I don't think the replay would have overturned the call. I believe the refs got it wrong, but the bottom line is that when you are 6-6 and 269 pounds, you don't let some defensive back take the football away from you.

Alabama had four drives that gained 40 or more yards [43, 62, 79, 49] resulting in 2 missed FGs, one FG and the Maze to Williams interception. The drive chart during regulation time tells a dismal tale of missed opportunities: 3 missed FGs; 2 Int.; 1 blocked kick; 2 punts; 2 FGs.

Defense: A The stop troops did all they could, short of scoring, to win the ball game.

Forget the Big 12 [which has only 10 teams] and the PAC However Many, no team in the country has a better stable of receivers than LSU. Yet, the Bama defense held Russell Shepard, Rueben Randle, Chase Clement, and Odell Beckham each to only 2 receptions, and neither gained more than 39 yards. Jordan Jefferson completed 6 of 10 pass attempts for 67 yards. Jarrett Lee completed 3 of 7 and was intercepted twice.

Spencer Ware, the Tigers leading rusher, brought his Two Weeks "Clean and Sober" pin with him to Tuscaloosa. It didn't do him much good as the Tide stuffed him for only 29 yards rushing. Michael Ford found a bit more running room [72 yards] and Jefferson, gained 43 rushing yards, mostly on option plays.

Nico Johnson had 11 tackles [3 solo]. Dequan Menzie recorded 8 stops [5 solo] and Dont'a Hightower made 7 [4 solo]. Damion Square, Courtney Upshaw and Mark Barron each had 6 tackles. Jerrell Harris and Jesse Williams each made 5.

The Defense as a whole recorded 5 tackles for lost yardage, 5 QB hurries, and two interceptions [Robert Lester and Mark Barron].

Courtney Upshaw was the most disruptive defender, whose 6 tackles included 1 for lost yardage [3 yards] and 2 hurries.

What keeps the Defense from getting the + is the blocking infraction committed on Mark Barron's interception return. The penalty deprived the offense of highly favorable field position inside the LSU 10 yard line.


Special Teams:

Punting: B- Cody Mandell punted only twice, averaging 39.5 yards. Neither punt was returned and both landed inside the LSU 20 yard line. The coaches bear the responsibility of having Maze attempt the punt return in the 4th quarter that sailed over his head. Maze was gimpy at the time and a better personnel choice may have been Hanks or Deandrew White.

Kickoffs: B Cade Foster averaged 62 yards gross per kick. Coverage was good, and achieved a net per kick of 45.7 yards. The kick return game outperformed LSU, resulting in a 43.5 net per kick [49 yards total in kick returns].

Place Kicking: F Because there is no lower grade. The coaching grade will also take a hit for the decision to attempt a 53 yard kick with Jeremy Shelley rather than punt the ball.

Coaching: C- I struggled with this grade and considered a lower one. I've already commented on the two special teams decisions that I think were clearly bad. Otherwise, the game plan was sound and we adjusted to what LSU was allowing. We didn't abandon the running game in the 4th quarter, LSU's defense simply made two big plays. The Wild Cat pass to Williams by Maze was a good call and, if executed, would have produced a TD. We had 6 penalties, only one less than LSU, who, going into the game, had been flagged twice as often as Alabama. One of Alabama's penalties was a substitution infraction during the OT period. That's all on the coaches. Fifty-seven players are listed in the participation report. LSU lists fifty-eight.

It looked to me as if the Alabama offense was whipped at the end of regulation. The possession in OT was Alabama's worst four snaps of the football I have witnessed since the loss to ULM in 2007.

This week is going to present Nick Saban a tremendous challenge. The team must put the LSU game into the rear view mirror and look ahead to preparing for and beating Mississippi State on the road.

The pundits are already talking about a rematch. I'm not so sure. Barring some totally freakish outcome, LSU will win the SEC West. There is no way Ole Miss can beat LSU. Arkansas is a different story. Depending on drug tests and police blotters LSU could be less than full strength against the Hogs, and with a bad bounce here or there, you never know. But even if LSU falls to the Pigs, it will still have the tie-breaker over Alabama for the SEC West title.

While I think LSU will win out, and beat Georgia in Atlanta, I really don't think it is likely the Tigers will be the only undefeated team in the country at the conclusion of the conference championships. Sure, Oklahoma State could lose to Oklahoma, Stanford could lose to Oregon and Boise State could lose to TCU. But all three would have to lose before the BCS formula would place the Tide back in the number 2 spot. And, of course, Alabama will have to rebound decisively against State and Auburn.

All of that could happen. Stranger things have happened before. No one can predict today exactly how the BCS Championship will play out. But what Alabama has to do is learn from this experience and improve. I know that sounds like so much trite Coach-Speak, but it's true. The offense needs to improve so that throws aren't forced to covered receivers when wide open ones are not seen. The defense needs to improve so that costly penalties don't erase excellent field position. The kicking game needs to ... well, you get the point.

This learning and improvement is not going to come easily. But I believe it will come. There is a reason why Nick Saban is the highest paid coach in the SEC. He will earn it this week, next week and the week after that.

The Commissioner

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